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Updated: It appears that Delahunt has bad connections to the release of the professor accused of the Alabama shootings, so this bad press will possibly drive him to retirement.  If this is the case, I’m betting on Joe Kennedy III, the Assistant DA of Barnstable County and son of former Congressman Joe Kennedy II, to run.  The Globe has a story up on him today, and they say this: “Joseph P. Kennedy III  is seen by insiders as the most likely in the family to enter electoral politics.” He may be young, but that didn’t stop Teddy, and he already has more experience than Teddy when he first ran.  I see him as a strong contender.  Plus, he’s a legitimate Cape Codder, voting out of Hyannis.  Politico also has a story up on it, saying that he is considered to be a possible replacement for Delahunt.

Many people have been talking about the possibility of Congressman Delahunt losing to a Republican in 2010 (I won’t go into too many details; for a good primer on the Republican field, see MassBeacon’s post on the subject).  The best challenger, Senator Hedlund, has yet to announce, and may not run.  However, Delahunt is clearly scared.  The Globe ran a story today that he was considering retiring.  He claimed that this was about whether or not he could make change better outside of elected office, but I think this is out of fear.  However, I don’t think it is that likely he is retiring.  The Globe story ended with this quote: “Even as he considers retirement, he still sounded like a candidate: ‘They don’t have to bring it up, because I will. [about his ties to Hugo Chavez]‘”  This doesn’t sound like someone who will retire.  He still has $600 K in the bank.  I think he can be convinced to run.

So, assuming he doesn’t retire, what chance does he have? (I won’t analyze the possibilities if he does retire; MassBeacon.com has a good post on that already)  Well, there are several Republican’s running.  One of them is former Treasurer Joe Malone; he is a corrupt hack, and will probably not win.  Another is Ray Kasperowicz, a CPA from Cohasset.  He is another long shot, and no one knows who he is.  Another long shot is Donald Hussey, of Hingham; I have absolutely no clue who he is.  However, State Representative Jeff Perry, of the 5th Barnstable District, is running.  He presents an actual challenge.  And, if State Senator Hedlund announces, he will be a big challenger.

I think it’s pretty clear Delahunt would defeat Malone, Kasperowicz, and Hussey.  However, it is less clear whether he could defeat Perry or Hedlund.  I still think he will.  Here’s why.  Perry, who is the only one of the challengers with a shot who has announced, is from the Cape.  Delahunt, although from Quincy, has a good presence on the Cape; I don’t think he will meet his downfall at the hands of a Cape Cod candidate.  His opposition to Cape Wind scores him points on Cape Cod, too.  Hedlund poses an interesting challenge; his district is entirely within the 10th CD, and he has good name recognition elsewhere, being a high ranking Republican in the State Senate.  And, on top of that, his district constitutes the often forgotten towns of the South Shore, which are breeding grounds for wealthy Republican activism.

Both of these look like strong candidates.  However, I still put Delahunt as the winner.  Here’s why.  The 10th Congressional District is very ungovernable.  People from Quincy have different interests from people on the Cape, who have different interests from people on the Islands, who have different interests from people on the South Shore.  Delahunt has gotten really good at pleasing these different constituencies, and it will be hard for someone else to run in the 10th District.  His skill at keeping everyone happy will lead him on to victory in 2010, should he run