351 Communities

As I have said earlier, I expect the last situation to happen.  However, this would mean no Representative would live in Boston, and also could irritate Lynch’s union base (he himself was a former ironworker).  As such, another scenario arises.  Currently, the Pioneer Valley has two Congressmen, Richard Neal (of Springfield) and John Olver (of Amherst).  This region has a population of about 670,000, or roughly 35,000 more than a Congressional district and less than a Congressional District after the redistricting.  Even when the Berkshires are added, the population is just over 800,000.  Furthermore, Olver is getting on in years, and would appear the closest of all MA Congressmen to age-related retirement (Barney Frank’s case is special, if the rumors about him seeking a job in the Obama administration are true; plus, his district is virtually unable to be districted out).  As such, it would make sense to create a district of Western MA, and have Olver and Neal compete in a primary (or just have Olver retire in 2012).  In such a case, McGovern would get a more reasonable district, as he would be mostly representing Worcester County with the eastern parts of Hampden, Hampshire, and Franklin Counties thrown in.  Here are what the districts would look like in such a scenario:

Olver's/Neal's District

McGovern's District

Tsongas' District

Frank's District

Tierney's District

Markey's District

Capuano's District

Lynch's District

Delahunt's District

So, I have tested several redistricting scenarios* with Dave’s Redistricting App, and this scenario appears to be the most likely (and pleasing to progressives).  Most of the districts will have minor shifts and expansions, and Capuano’s 8th district will get most of the city of Boston.  As such, Stephen Lynch and Mike Capuano will live in the same district, and, since Cambridge and Somerville would still be in the district, the district will still roughly be around a D+32 PVI (the neighborhoods of South Boston and Dorchester, currently in Lynch’s district, will lower this somewhat, but I predict it would still be above D+25).  Because of this redistricting, Capuano and Lynch will battle it out in a primary.  Since Lynch is a more conservative dem (I still remember the Labor Day Healthcare Rally, in which he was drowned out when speaking by chants of “Public Option”), and Capuano is a very vocal liberal, Capuano will win in this primary.  This would be a fairly equitable way to eliminate a district, as it would eliminate one of the Representatives who live within 10 miles of the State House, which, as I’ve mentioned before, is overrepresented.  This is also a good situation for progressives, as Lynch is the least progressive member of the Massachusetts Congressional delegation.  There is only one issue, and that is the strong union support for Lynch, which will make this district hard to create in the State House, as legislators with strong union backing will fight against this.  Furthermore, this scenario would eliminate the only Representative who lives in the city of Boston, which seems somewhat unequitable (although Capuano does live in nearby Somerville)

*NB: I am acting under the assumption that MA will lose a Congressional District in the 2010 redistricting.  This seems to be the general consensus among wonks

Here are what the districts look like in my model (after the jump):

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