351 Communities

So, I have tested several redistricting scenarios* with Dave’s Redistricting App, and this scenario appears to be the most likely (and pleasing to progressives).  Most of the districts will have minor shifts and expansions, and Capuano’s 8th district will get most of the city of Boston.  As such, Stephen Lynch and Mike Capuano will live in the same district, and, since Cambridge and Somerville would still be in the district, the district will still roughly be around a D+32 PVI (the neighborhoods of South Boston and Dorchester, currently in Lynch’s district, will lower this somewhat, but I predict it would still be above D+25).  Because of this redistricting, Capuano and Lynch will battle it out in a primary.  Since Lynch is a more conservative dem (I still remember the Labor Day Healthcare Rally, in which he was drowned out when speaking by chants of “Public Option”), and Capuano is a very vocal liberal, Capuano will win in this primary.  This would be a fairly equitable way to eliminate a district, as it would eliminate one of the Representatives who live within 10 miles of the State House, which, as I’ve mentioned before, is overrepresented.  This is also a good situation for progressives, as Lynch is the least progressive member of the Massachusetts Congressional delegation.  There is only one issue, and that is the strong union support for Lynch, which will make this district hard to create in the State House, as legislators with strong union backing will fight against this.  Furthermore, this scenario would eliminate the only Representative who lives in the city of Boston, which seems somewhat unequitable (although Capuano does live in nearby Somerville)

*NB: I am acting under the assumption that MA will lose a Congressional District in the 2010 redistricting.  This seems to be the general consensus among wonks

Here are what the districts look like in my model (after the jump):

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This blog is meant to cover everything Massachusetts, especially the politics.  I had hoped to do this on Blue Mass Group, but unfortunately, couldn’t get an account because of some technical problem (hint to BMG: fix this glitch).  I was inspired to write this blog when I looked up the residences of each MA Congressman, and realized several issues with redistricting.  These are: 1) 5 of our 10 Congressmen live within 10 miles of the State House.  2) SE Mass. has no representative that lives in it.  All of it is represented by 3 Congressmen: Bill Delahunt, of Quincy; Barney Frank, of Newton (both within 10 miles of the State House; Delahunt is within 5); and Jim McGovern, of Worcester.

5 Reps live within the first circle; 6 within the second

This makes redistricting hard, since Southeastern MA pretty much gets screwed no matter what, and inside 128 gets disproportionately represented (in the interest of full disclosure, I live within 128).  This, combined with the “slice of the pie” districts makes redistricting incredibly difficult.  I intend to be your #1 source for MA redistricting news, both speculative and actual news.  I will also cover other random things about Massachusetts politics and geography

Here is a map I’ve created of the residences of every Congressman in MA:
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