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As I have briefly mentioned before, the South Coast and Cape have very little equity.  Currently, there is not good rail service to that region and they have no Congressmen living nearby (the whole region is represented by Congressmen from Worcester, Newton, and Quincy).  Most people consider Western Mass to be the region with the least equitable treatment.  They are wrong.  The South Coast and Cape by far get the short end of the stick.  I have a few ideas on how this region can be more equitably treated.

1) complete the South Coast Rail Link.  This will bring in more tourism, and allow people from that area to commute to Boston easier.  It will improve the situation of residents of this region greatly, giving them much better access to Boston.  This will also build business in Boston itself.

2) Create a Cape, South Coast, and Islands Congressional district.  In the next redistricting, it is possible that there could be a district carved out of this region.  This would be better for its inhabitants, giving them more access to their Congressman, who would be a local (although Delahunt does have excellent constituent services in Hyannis and Barney Frank in Dartmouth)

Well, it’s the year.  The census happens this year.  This will determine whether MA loses a CD or not.  I will be on top of all the census and redistricting news as the year progresses.  I will also cover the governor’s race and some legislature and Congressional races of note.  Stick with me for all of this

I read this good news in the Globe yesterday.  There is a possibility that Massachusetts will not lose a Congressional District, after all.  For the first time in years, more people are moving to Massachusetts than leaving.  Between July 2008 and July 2009, the Massachusetts population increased by 50,000.  While this increase alone will not save a district, it is still very good news.  If this trend continues, we will have a good chance to keep the 10th CD, especially since, as reported by the Globe, Galvin’s office “will be awarding small grants to neighborhood groups, religious groups, and civic groups to persuade immigrants to participate [in the census].”  This will help us make sure everyone is counted, and will give us an advantage over other states.  Strategies like this have helped before, with eight MA cities and towns challenging their census estimates, adding 22,000 to the Massachusetts population. Galvin has the experience as Secretary of the Commonwealth, and can steer us through this census process so as to avoid losing a CD

As I have said earlier, I expect the last situation to happen.  However, this would mean no Representative would live in Boston, and also could irritate Lynch’s union base (he himself was a former ironworker).  As such, another scenario arises.  Currently, the Pioneer Valley has two Congressmen, Richard Neal (of Springfield) and John Olver (of Amherst).  This region has a population of about 670,000, or roughly 35,000 more than a Congressional district and less than a Congressional District after the redistricting.  Even when the Berkshires are added, the population is just over 800,000.  Furthermore, Olver is getting on in years, and would appear the closest of all MA Congressmen to age-related retirement (Barney Frank’s case is special, if the rumors about him seeking a job in the Obama administration are true; plus, his district is virtually unable to be districted out).  As such, it would make sense to create a district of Western MA, and have Olver and Neal compete in a primary (or just have Olver retire in 2012).  In such a case, McGovern would get a more reasonable district, as he would be mostly representing Worcester County with the eastern parts of Hampden, Hampshire, and Franklin Counties thrown in.  Here are what the districts would look like in such a scenario:

Olver's/Neal's District

McGovern's District

Tsongas' District

Frank's District

Tierney's District

Markey's District

Capuano's District

Lynch's District

Delahunt's District

So, I have tested several redistricting scenarios* with Dave’s Redistricting App, and this scenario appears to be the most likely (and pleasing to progressives).  Most of the districts will have minor shifts and expansions, and Capuano’s 8th district will get most of the city of Boston.  As such, Stephen Lynch and Mike Capuano will live in the same district, and, since Cambridge and Somerville would still be in the district, the district will still roughly be around a D+32 PVI (the neighborhoods of South Boston and Dorchester, currently in Lynch’s district, will lower this somewhat, but I predict it would still be above D+25).  Because of this redistricting, Capuano and Lynch will battle it out in a primary.  Since Lynch is a more conservative dem (I still remember the Labor Day Healthcare Rally, in which he was drowned out when speaking by chants of “Public Option”), and Capuano is a very vocal liberal, Capuano will win in this primary.  This would be a fairly equitable way to eliminate a district, as it would eliminate one of the Representatives who live within 10 miles of the State House, which, as I’ve mentioned before, is overrepresented.  This is also a good situation for progressives, as Lynch is the least progressive member of the Massachusetts Congressional delegation.  There is only one issue, and that is the strong union support for Lynch, which will make this district hard to create in the State House, as legislators with strong union backing will fight against this.  Furthermore, this scenario would eliminate the only Representative who lives in the city of Boston, which seems somewhat unequitable (although Capuano does live in nearby Somerville)

*NB: I am acting under the assumption that MA will lose a Congressional District in the 2010 redistricting.  This seems to be the general consensus among wonks

Here are what the districts look like in my model (after the jump):

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This blog is meant to cover everything Massachusetts, especially the politics.  I had hoped to do this on Blue Mass Group, but unfortunately, couldn’t get an account because of some technical problem (hint to BMG: fix this glitch).  I was inspired to write this blog when I looked up the residences of each MA Congressman, and realized several issues with redistricting.  These are: 1) 5 of our 10 Congressmen live within 10 miles of the State House.  2) SE Mass. has no representative that lives in it.  All of it is represented by 3 Congressmen: Bill Delahunt, of Quincy; Barney Frank, of Newton (both within 10 miles of the State House; Delahunt is within 5); and Jim McGovern, of Worcester.

5 Reps live within the first circle; 6 within the second

This makes redistricting hard, since Southeastern MA pretty much gets screwed no matter what, and inside 128 gets disproportionately represented (in the interest of full disclosure, I live within 128).  This, combined with the “slice of the pie” districts makes redistricting incredibly difficult.  I intend to be your #1 source for MA redistricting news, both speculative and actual news.  I will also cover other random things about Massachusetts politics and geography

Here is a map I’ve created of the residences of every Congressman in MA:
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